For nearly the entirety of 2018, I had warned my clients of a mathematically inevitable spike in 10-Year Treasury Yields, and hence a similar surge in U.S. interest rates. This “yield shock,” I warned, would usher a major market drawdown beginning in October and spreading into Christmas and beyond, which is precisely what happened.
We saw markets fall by 10% in October. Following some recovery in November, by New Year’s Eve, while watching fireworks in southern France, I watched markets in the U.S. melt with equal fanfare by 15% over just three weeks in December.
Here’s how I knew this was coming.