In my latest post, I introduced to you the Critical Signals Report “Storm Tracker.”
I explained how we track dozens of complex market weather patterns like the Fed’s “great experiment” to provide you with simple yet reliable market forecasting tools.
Now that you’ve seen a bit of how I track these market weather patterns, I can now show you how to not only manage market risk, but also invest in all market conditions.
Building upon Storm Tracker, I am now sharing the Critical Signals Report Crash Portfolio, an uncomplicated, elegant allocation map.
Simply, the Crash Portfolio displays the asset breakdowns you’ve been asking for.
You get the right types of assets and position sizes, shown in percentages, that you need to adopt as market weather conditions change.
The Critical Signals Report Crash Portfolio uniquely allocates capital to cash, stocks, bonds, and liquid alternative solutions that are working during any phase of the business cycle, including recessionary cycles.
When they’re combined, the Storm Tracker and the Crash Portfolio will go far in answering your questions as to what to do.
Here’s How We Breakdown Secret Market Movements
In a nutshell, what’s happening now is not pretty.
The Storm Tracker’s “wind speed” has been moving up incrementally in recent weeks and months, because recession indicators are rising.
Specifically, global yield curves are inverting or negative, trends are weakening, leading indicators are deteriorating, and a number of our proprietary indicators are starting to turn south.
What’s the cause for all of this?
It’s simple: financial markets are wrestling control from politicians.
The markets completely tanked in December 2018, and this financial downturn, along with political pressure, caused the Fed to shutdown (i.e. “pause” further rate hikes) in Q1 of 2019.
So, who’s in control exactly?
Is it the Fed, the politicos, or the markets?
Well, I want you the investor to be in control.
Alas in the end, it’s the market that gets the last and final word-at least the kind we can trust with math rather than spin.
That’s why we watch the markets very carefully.
So you can be in control.
Toward that end, here’s an example of what we’re seeing right now.
So forgive me as we get a bit technical for a moment.
Just One of Many Indicators We Track for You
Tons of technical indicators are out there, and we’ll be addressing them in subsequent Critical Signals Reports.
But one indicator that we are watching right now is the Elliot Wave.
It’s likely you’ve never heard of it.
Simply said, it’s a form of technical analysis that investment veterans in charge of massive portfolios use to determine the start and finish lines of market cycles.
Elliot Waves forecast market trends by identifying market price extremes (both high and low) driven by investor psychology, which is otherwise difficult to quantify/measure.
That’s right it looks to understand how investors like you think as a result of market pricing.
Many debate the empirical validity of such an indicator, but when you look at it along with dozens of other indicators, as we do here at Critical Signals Reports, important weather patterns emerge.
No single indicator is overwhelmingly impactful; however, when understood and examined in conjunction with other market patterns, it becomes much easier to track market storms.
Currently, the Elliot Wave is describing a market top, not just on a daily basis, but on a weekly and monthly basis as well.
Elliot Waves run in cycles, or waves, with Wave 1 marking the beginning of a new bull market and Wave 5 signaling its peak-i.e. the period just before it tanks.
Historically, market bears are ridiculed when Wave 5 kicks in.
By this point investors are typically fully invested and just don’t see (or want to see) anything but more profits ahead.
They are effectively investing with beer goggles on.
These herd-thinking investors historically suffer the most, as we saw in the U.S. in 2000 and 2008 or in Japan in 1989.
Such consensus-thinking investors took a false comfort in “safety in numbers,” and thus marched toward market peaks with great confidence just before falling off the cliff together.
These Charts Will Help Clear Up
Daily, weekly, and monthly Elliot Waves on the S&P 500 Index are telling us that we are at a dangerous top with each time frame confirming the next.
Specifically, here’s the Daily Elliot Wave on the S&P 500 Index from 2013 through Thursday, May 23, 2019, 10am.
(NOTE – Stocks are slumping globally today, May 23, as we pen this article, with the Dow Jones Index falling as much as 406 points, mapping an “outside monthly reversal” as markets increasing believe the trade dispute with China will not end any time soon.)
Here’s the Weekly Elliot Wave for the same timeframe …
And, finally, here’s the Monthly Elliot Wave …
You should notice how all these Elliot Wave time periods look very similar.
And what you need to recognize is that the S&P is at an all-time high.
What You Do Next Matters for All Your Future Investing
So, let’s add things up.
The Elliot Waves are signaling a market top.
And the Critical Signals Report Storm Tracker, which combines this market signal with a myriad of other weather patterns, is telling us that the “wind speed” of the recession we are tracking is approaching at 45 knots.
This simply means today we are signaling an advisable cash position of 45%.
Again, it’s that easy.
The Storm Tracker is THE suggested portfolio cash allocation.
From there, our Crash Portfolio takes over and allocates the remainder (55% in this example) across a very specific range of equity, fixed income (i.e. bonds), and alternative investments on both the long and short side in each instance.
Currently, for that remaining 55%, the Crash Portfolio allocation is favoring a wide range of government-agency, municipal, and precious metal ETFs as investors seek shelter.
On the alternative investment side, with stocks falling from favor, short-side ETFs (Part 4 refers) are indicated across stocks generally and specific stock sectors at various leverage points.
As we roll out the Storm Tracker and the Crash Portfolio in the near and exciting future, you’ll know in real time which specific sectors and instruments are working, whether in a melt-up or a melt-down.
Just remember this takeaway, whether markets are melting up or melting down …
There’s always something to do that will make you money!
So, for now … stay tuned and keep those comments coming!
Let us know if we are heading in a direction that will help you answer all of those really great questions.
We’re here for you.
In the meantime, stay informed and be careful out there in the winds of change.
2 responses to “Protect Yourself Before Market Storm Hits”
May 23 2019