Below we look at the critical importance of "the macros" and proper market sector identification.
Last week the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all rose to new and record-breaking highs. I wasn't kidding in October when I announced the coming of a full-on melt-up in the wake of the Fed's sudden "easing" and all the "accommodative" tailwinds it brings.
From Matt: Today, we’re going to hear from my Critical Signals colleague, Tom Lott. He’s a trusted friend of course, and a trading genius – this video will tell you everything you need to know about Tom. He’s going to... Read more »
Welcome back to our Monday “look ahead.” Decelerating growth and job gains, along with a developing manufacturing recession, will be the headlines this week, as the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) announces further interest rate cuts (or not) at 2:00... Read more »
Readers, clients, and market watchers across the bull-to-bear spectrum have joined our efforts here at Critical Signals Report to not only track the habits of the most distorted and openly rigged markets ever traded (nod to the central banks), but to also keep you ahead of the game as the most informed investors.
The logic is simple: Informed investors are better investors.
A key aspect of staying informed hinges upon asking the right questions. And today, we want to explore the four most critical questions that every investor should ask.
By answering questions like these, we better equip ourselves to navigate the current and historically unprecedented battle between natural market forces and central bank intervention with open eyes and calm wallets.
Be you bear, bull, or somewhere in the middle, the information set forth below will inform your decisions with facts rather than guesswork.
Thereafter, and depending on your individual risk tolerance, income, and experience, what you do with this information is up to you.
It's more than Halloween that makes the month of October so scary.
Ever heard of the "October Effect" - that self-fulfilling expectation that stocks predominantly decline, and even tank, in October?
With the Fed's recent "easing" move to print $60 billion per month in support of U.S. bond, repo, and hence stock markets, I bet Powell was thinking the same thing.
October has historically been a bad month, most notably the Panic of 1907; Black Tuesday (1929); and Black Monday (1987) when the Dow plummeted 22.6% in a single day. And let's not forget Black October (2008) when the Great Financial Crisis roared like a bear.
That said, this October might sneak by without too much ticker drama. After all, $60 billion in printed dollars ought to buy something.
Welcome back to What's Happening Now, following a grim week for investors, especially those hanging on for that last evasive yet entirely possible "melt-up" in stocks to come should the Fed print more dollars out of thin air.
Beyond (and more important than) the impeachment proceedings launched in the U.S. last week, China trade negotiations fell off track again as new U.S. threats to contain even passive investing in China, along with Chinese company listings on U.S. Exchanges, were floated.
A resolution of the trade war would send markets temporarily much higher; as of today, however, such a resolution remains elusive.
In the meantime, U.S. manufacturing data continued to plummet... to below breakeven.
And on the Central Bank front, necessary Fed repo rescues alarmed the U.S. as chaos at the European Central Bank mounted.
In short, a lot is going on and not much of it is objectively good, though further Fed "stimulus" could easily buy us more time and highs.
Happy Monday and welcome back to this week's What's Happening Now.
Last week was quite a week, no?
It seems we're not the only ones seeing red with our "Fed Red Days." Last Monday, the Fed saw red, too, and jumped to the rescue of an out-of-control repo market to assure liquidity for bank and other short-term financing needs.
By Sunday morning last, the smoke rising from drone attacks on Aramco’s oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia could be seen from outer space. Rising energy costs from this singular event (which significantly reduced global oil production), when combined with... Read more »