The starting gun has fired. It's 2020 now and January is about to join 2019 in the rearview mirror. While past market performance is never a reliable indicator of future results, peaks like this can be informative. What we're seeing now are crazy markets, and below we back this with facts and advice, not just bewildered eyes.
So, we'll start this Monday's Critical Signals Report by looking back...so we can spring forward/think ahead.
To take you behind our tent, we've prepared a simple chart that shares, dissects and broadly informs on What's Happening Now.
Buckle up: This Critical Signals Report is going to be chart-heavy but easy to follow. After all, a picture is often worth a thousand words. Read more »
Brace yourselves folks, for despite my undeniably longer-term and openly jaded concerns for our Fed-supported U.S. markets, I'm going to be sharing some very bullish data below that just might surprise you.
Why so bullish?
Well, it boils down to relative strength. That is, because things are about to turn so bearish in Europe, this actually means bullish tailwinds for the U.S.
As I've written elsewhere, when things go bad overseas first, this causes massive flows of capital to the U.S. credit and equity markets as the real and perceived best horse in the global glue factory.
And the glue factory is kicking into overdrive... Read more »
Below we look at the critical importance of "the macros" and proper market sector identification.
Last week the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all rose to new and record-breaking highs. I wasn't kidding in October when I announced the coming of a full-on melt-up in the wake of the Fed's sudden "easing" and all the "accommodative" tailwinds it brings.
We're certainly seeing a melt-up... Read more »
Back in April of the last year, we forecasted the tailwinds for the melt-up we are currently enjoying and which hit our "official" radar once the Fed broke out the money printer again in October, at which point we basically screamed "party on!"
But every party animal needs a designated driver-and it's our role to keep psychologies and portfolios carefully risk-managed, even in a melt-up.
By now, all our subscribers know that when the Fed is "accommodative," markets rise.
No mystery there.
That said, we also warned just two days after our melt-up report that eventually a melt-down follows. We are not there yet, and are not here to make predictions, as one can neither "fight the Fed" nor predict its unprecedented stimulus' life-span.
For now, the Fed is in full-on steroid mode.
Nevertheless, we are now in uncharted waters when it comes to predicting the staying power of the Fed's perpetual money creation and rate suppression.
Rather than tarot cards, we simply watch the market signals, in particular Treasury yields, to warn us of the inevitable "Uh-oh" moment, be it tomorrow or years from tomorrow. Read more »
Happy Monday, and as per our practice, let's start the week with a deep dive into "What's Happening Now" and what's ahead in these admittedly interesting times.
Below, we examine current signals from the U.S. tech sector, geopolitics, the earnings outlook, gold, the U.S. dollar, China and even Tesla.
Let's get started... Read more »
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