Below we look at the critical importance of "the macros" and proper market sector identification.
Last week the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all rose to new and record-breaking highs. I wasn't kidding in October when I announced the coming of a full-on melt-up in the wake of the Fed's sudden "easing" and all the "accommodative" tailwinds it brings.
We're certainly seeing a melt-up... Read more »
Back in April of the last year, we forecasted the tailwinds for the melt-up we are currently enjoying and which hit our "official" radar once the Fed broke out the money printer again in October, at which point we basically screamed "party on!"
But every party animal needs a designated driver-and it's our role to keep psychologies and portfolios carefully risk-managed, even in a melt-up.
By now, all our subscribers know that when the Fed is "accommodative," markets rise.
No mystery there.
That said, we also warned just two days after our melt-up report that eventually a melt-down follows. We are not there yet, and are not here to make predictions, as one can neither "fight the Fed" nor predict its unprecedented stimulus' life-span.
For now, the Fed is in full-on steroid mode.
Nevertheless, we are now in uncharted waters when it comes to predicting the staying power of the Fed's perpetual money creation and rate suppression.
Rather than tarot cards, we simply watch the market signals, in particular Treasury yields, to warn us of the inevitable "Uh-oh" moment, be it tomorrow or years from tomorrow. Read more »
Happy Monday, and as per our practice, let's start the week with a deep dive into "What's Happening Now" and what's ahead in these admittedly interesting times.
Below, we examine current signals from the U.S. tech sector, geopolitics, the earnings outlook, gold, the U.S. dollar, China and even Tesla.
Let's get started... Read more »
As the new year kicks in, a number of diverse yet qualified opinions and pundits are back in full swing ringing the warning bells for the future of the US dollar crash, inflation and the fate of our markets.
In other words, is it all about to come crashing down? Should you run for the hills?
The short answer is "no." The longer answer is "not yet."
Below we explain why there's still a bit of fight left in this bull run as we take a deeper dive into the dollar, inflation, the markets and the ultimate value of gold. Read more »
This week, as I pack my bags for Europe, I found myself on the phone with a D.C. think-tank to discuss the future-not just for the next year, but for the next decade.
Folks, it was not an altogether uplifting discussion...
My aim here is not to spout personal opinions, take a political stance, or convince anyone to run for the hills or pop more champagne.
Like Switzerland, I'll aim to stay as neutral as possible (except when talking about markets) and simply report what was discussed-hitting the broad themes and thus allowing each of you to draw your own conclusions.
Thereafter, you can decide if we are staring down the barrel of either 1) more central-bank-driven bliss ahead or 2) pitchforks, gun smok,e and angry mobs.
Maybe it will be something in between?
Anyway, here's what was discussed...
Read more »
Dear Reader, There is a nasty storm offshore heading your way, but you wouldn’t know... Read more »
For most of 2018, I warned my clients of a yield/interest-rate spike in Q4 that... Read more »
Market history confirms that markets can melt-up to almost unbelievable highs just before they crash.... Read more »
In our prior reports, we showed you the classic forces behind a market melt-up as... Read more »
In previous reports, I showed you Seven Tailwinds behind a Final Market Surge, Eight Triggers... Read more »
Growing up in the 1980s, Japan’s sun was rising big time. There was even a... Read more »
In this critical report, we examine how a stock can rise in price despite declining... Read more »
Desperate times call for desperate ideas, so it’s no surprise that MMT (Modern Monetary Theory)... Read more »